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Written by Dr. Econ   
Sunday, 03 July 2011 01:00

The FED+ (Future Earnings Discounted Plus Equity) Model is based on a back-tested and strategy-proven academic model. It simply states that the fair value of a stock is equal to the present value of future earnings plus equity. One also need to discount the future earnings using the appropriate discount rate. I use 11% discount rate for large-cap U.S.-based stocks because that was the average annualized return in the last century. However, depending on the sector risk, you might need to increase this rate. For small caps, you need to increase the discount rate as well. FED Fair value does not include equity. Thus, it is the lower boundary for the fair-value estimation. FED+ Model counts for net equity as well. Therefore, it is the upper boundary for the fair-value estimation. Here, you can find updated links to my FED+ Single Stock articles on SeekingAlpha.com Investment Community Website:

 

 

Green Mountain Coffee Sell-Off Adds Up To A Bargain Buy

FED Fair Value = $67

FED+ Fair Value = $79

Caterpillar Has At Least 18% Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $109

FED+ Fair Value = $129

Abbott: A Dividend Pick For the Next 5 Years

FED Fair Value = $57

FED+ Fair Value = $75

Intel Has At Least 47% Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $35

FED+ Fair Value = $44

Apple Has At Least 45% Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $570

FED+ Fair Value = $646

GE Has Significant Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $22

FED+ Fair Value = $34

Google Has Up To 46% Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $705

FED+ Fair Value = $866

Duke Energy Is Undervalued Compared To Its Peers

FED Fair Value = $17

FED+ Fair Value = $34

Southern Company: Slightly Overpriced But A Great Long-Term PickShare

FED Fair Value = $31

FED+ Fair Value = $52

Netflix: The Recent Sell-Off Created Rare Opportunity To Buy Below Fair Value

FED Fair Value = $171

FED+ Fair Value = $178

 


 

eBay: A High-Growth Company Priced Within The Fair-Value Range

FED Fair Value = $28

FED+ Fair Value = $41

Accenture Is Fairly Valued With A Strong Balance Sheet

FED Fair Value = $52

FED+ Fair Value = $58

Target Has Significant Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $68

FED+ Fair Value = $91

Visa's Upside Potential Is Vast

FED Fair Value = $100

FED+ Fair Value = $133

Home Depot's 60% Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $40

FED+ Fair Value = $52

Walt Disney Has Significant Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $43

FED+ Fair Value = $64

Union Pacific Has Almost 100% Upside Potential

FED Fair Value = $133

FED+ Fair Value = $171

News Corporation Trading 20% Below Its Fair Value Range

FED Fair Value = $20

FED+ Fair Value = $31

CVS Caremark: Fairly Valued Company

CVS Caremark: FED Fair Value = $45

CVS Caremark: FED+ Fair Value = $73

Royal Caribbean Offers Unprecedented Buying Opportunity September 2, 2011

Royal Caribbean: FED Fair Value = $51.59

Royal Caribbean: FED+ Fair Value = $89.99

ACE Insurance: A Substantial Dividend And At Least 100% Upside Potential September 2, 2011

ACE Insurance: FED Fair Value = $116.13

ACE Insurance: FED+ Fair Value = $187.88

Boeing Has Almost 30% Upside Potential September 1, 2011

Boeing: FED Fair Value = $78.39

Boeing: FED+ Fair Value = $84.78

Cognizant Technology A High-Growth Stock Priced Below Its Fair Value August 31, 2011

Cognizant: FED Fair Value = $64.87

Cognizant: FED+ Fair Value = $77.88

Baidu: Limited Upside, Unlimited Downside August 31, 2011

Baidu: FED Fair Value = $139.70

Baidu: FED+ Fair Value = $144.71

Comcast: Trading Way Below Its Fair Value Range August 29, 2011

Comcast: FED Fair Value = $25.87

Comcast: FED+ Fair Value = $42.83

Las Vegas Sands: A Roller-Coaster Stock But Fairly Valued Under $47 August 25, 2011

Las Vegas Sands: FED Fair Value = $36.42

Las Vegas Sands: FED+ Fair Value = $47.30

La-Z-Boy Offers More Than 100% Upside Potential August 24, 2011

La-Z-Boy: FED Fair Value = $13.75

La-Z-Boy: FED+ Fair Value = $20.71

Sirius XM: A Rare Opportunity To Buy Below Fair-Value August 23, 2011

SiriusXM: FED Fair Value = $1.76

SiriusXM: FED+ Fair Value = $1.88

Amazon: Trading 100% Above Its Fair Value August 23, 2011

Amazon.com: FED Fair Value = $73.94

Amazon.com: FED+ Fair Value = $91.04

Wal-Mart: A Dividend Pick for the Next 5 Years August 4, 2011

Wal-Mart: FED Fair Value = $69.87

Wal-Mart: FED+ Fair Value = $88.55

McDonald's is Slightly Over-Priced but a Must Have for the Ultimate Retirement Portfolio (July 24, 2011)

McDonald's: FED Fair Value = $69

McDonald's: FED+ Fair Value = $83


Google Has 45% Upside Potential for the Long-Term Investors (July 8, 2011)

Google: FED Fair Value = $646

Google: FED+ Fair Value = $796

AT&T Stocks Offer 80% Upside Potential for the Long-Term Investors (June 30, 2011)

AT&T: FED Fair Value = $37

AT&T: FED+ Fair Value = $55

Microsoft Stocks Offer 80% Upside Potential for the Long-Term Investors (June 29, 2011)

Microsoft: FED Fair Value = $40

Microsoft: FED+ Fair Value = $46

IBM Stocks Offer 20% Upside Potential for the Long-Term Investors (June 14, 2011)

IBM: FED Fair Value = $180

IBM: FED+ Fair Value = $198

Cisco Stocks Offer 50% Upside Potential for the Long-Term Investors (June 13, 2011)

Cisco: FED Fair Value = $15

Cisco: FED+ Fair Value = $23

Apple Stocks Offer 30% Upside Potential for the Long-Term Investors (June 12, 2011)

Apple: FED Fair Value = $363

Apple: FED+ Fair Value = $430

Intel Stocks Offer 60% Upside Potential for the Long-Term Investors (June 10, 2011)

Intel: FED Fair Value = $26

Intel: FED+ Fair Value = $34


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Last Updated on Thursday, 15 December 2011 09:30
 

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