Investment Philosophy

One must use the power of Economics & Statistics combined with knowledge of Finance. That is the primary reason the website is named EFS Investment. I use fundamental analysis to pick the best stocks for the long term. I use statistical analysis to benefit from cyclical market anomalies, and I use technical analysis to confirm my decisions.

My long-term stock picking models are back-tested. Before choosing any stock, I go back 5 years, and see how my models could have worked so far. I continuously perform sector wide back tests within specific sectors, and check the past data to make future estimations. If investors used my models, those bubbles would have never existed. Investment is not an art; it is a science which can be learned through reading, application, and experience. I am not a trader, nor a market player. One can enjoy short-term rewards at the risk of losing large amount of capital in the long run. Thanks to my access to special trading software, I can make my decisions on a global scale. I am on the bullish side of the market: A ttm [trailing twelve month] P/E ratio of 15 (+-5) is well justified for the U.S. market. Here, is my last 20 articles on SeekingAlpha:

5 Considerable Stock Calls By Jim Cramer How To Choose The Best Technology Stocks For The Next 5 Years 7 Buy And 3 Sell Ideas From Jim Cramer Trading Ideas From Jim Cramer's Mad Mail 5 Buy And 4 Sell Ideas From Mad Money's Lightning Round 5 Companies That Might Report Blowout Earnings On Tuesday 7 Ideas From BB&T's Portfolio Google Has Up To 46% Upside Potential 7 Cramer Calls Worth A Deeper Look 3 Technology Stocks To Buy, 3 To Sell, 1 To Hold 7 Buy And 3 Sell Ideas From Jim Cramer - Part II 7 Buy And 3 Sell Ideas From Jim Cramer- Part I 7 Cheap Companies Reporting Earnings On Monday 9 Buy And 1 Sell Ideas By Cramer, Part 2 Lightning Round: 6 Buy And 3 Sell Ideas By Cramer - Part 2 Lightning Round: 6 Buy And 3 Sell Ideas By Cramer - Part 1 Jim Cramer's Mad Money Buy And Sell Ideas GE Has Significant Upside Potential 9 Buy And 6 Sell Ideas By Cramer, Part I 5 Cramer Buy And 3 Sell Ideas Revisited

You can download the Fair Value + O-Metrix + Graham Margin of Safety Formula Excel Sheets. I put a description of those formulas in a separate sheet for convenience.